The magazine of the Melbourne PC User Group Comdex Report - November 2002 Ray Beatty raybea@melbpc.org.au |
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Innovation Is Not Dead — Only Limping
In the reporters' room at Comdex were two long banks of computers. Before each a scribbler anxiously worked away to catch the deadline. I sat frowning pensively at my screen when a very attractive young lady from Reed Business Information magazines, sitting at the next computer, turned to me and asked: "So what do you think is the most exciting new product at this year's Comdex?" I mused but for only a minute. "The dentist chair."
"Yeah?" she pondered, "I thought it was the scooter."
Now you may wonder what we were talking about at this mighty exhibition of all the world's great computing software and hardware giants. Did we stumble into the wrong conference centre and find ourselves in a medical exposition or Christmas kiddy fair? No, this was Comdex all right and those two products were the ones that were causing the most buzz.
The problem of course was that the mainstream products were just not sufficiently exciting. Any great breakthrough computer programs were so specialised and technical as to have little meaning to the general audience. And the hardware just got faster or smaller without doing anything revolutionary. The collapse of the dot.coms and the depressed nature of cash flow had also put a real dampener on proceedings. In fact some said the show was only a third its usual size.
Excitement In The Boxing Arena
Mind you this is not to say there was any lack of trying to beat up excitement. Bill Gates put on a mighty extravaganza at the MGM Hotel's boxing arena, trying to generate thrills and excitement for his new range of tablet PCs.
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He listed new inventions and innovations which would bring computing more and more into everyday life. He
pointed out that today 70% of American homes have a computer - and most of those have a PC in the living
room. This can then become the controller of the home environment. Add to this the explosion in 802.11 WI-FI wireless communication. Now there's the tool to allow total control in the home and anywhere else. "WI-FI has succeeded partly because it's low cost. Installing WI-FI into the home is now just a bit over $100 of investment, and it's getting easier to secure, easier to setup" said Gates. |
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He declared that "ninety percent of the innovations this industry has to offer its customers have
yet to come, so to those who think PC technology has run its course, I have a simple message: You ain't
seen nothing yet."
The World's Most Powerful Woman?
Next day was Carly Fiorina's turn. I'd been looking forward to seeing this attractive Hewlett-Packard
Chairman/CEO who is the most powerful woman executive in the world. She had just shown her muscles by
pulling off the mammoth HP-Compaq merger. What's more, a short time before it had been announced that
Compaq CEO Michael Capellas had left his job as President of HP and moved to WorldCom. So now Carly was
the undisputed Queen of the Castle.
But if you were expecting fireworks, they never happened. Much of her speech sounded like it had been
scripted by Gates' writers. Both made much of hand-helds and tablet PCs, all of which were lovely to look
at but not really ground-breaking. And all the big corporations congratulated each other for working so
cooperatively with each other.
So the developments will be coming from the continuous improvement in technical capacity. Fibre optic
speed and exponential storage growth will mean greater degrees of communication. Home wireless networking,
community wireless LANs, digital photography are where the growth lies. As Gates pointed out, a year ago
camera purchase rates were 15% digital. Now they have already crossed the 50% mark. He was talking about
the US, but from casual observation I'd be surprised if the same figures did not apply here.
Smart Fridge Magnets
Another trend is what Microsoft calls SPOT: Smart Personal Object Technology. Personal devices that have
been made smart through computer applications. By now we have all seen the palmtop computers that make
phone calls; or the mobile phones which take pictures and then send them out as e-mails.
Well Bill Gates introduced some of his backroom boys who have been given a free roving brief. They came
up with things like an alarm clock that displays weather and traffic information individually tailored
to your particular morning commute. Fridge magnets that will give you the latest sports scores. Curiosities,
but not revolutionary.
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No for that we have to get back to the scooter. Actually it is called a Segway and looks like a pogo stick
on wheels. Just two little wheels either side, the rider stands on the axle. This machine has a built-in
computer, electric motor and gyroscope. The last is the magic bit. The computer senses what the driver is
doing and passes the information across to the gyroscope.
So stand still and you won't fall off. Lean forward a little and it will drive forward, at speeds between 8 and 25 kph. Straighten up and it stops, a twist of the wrist and it turns left or right. I can hear you already: "So who is ever going to want something like that?" Especially at $10,000 for the domestic version. |
Well you'd be surprised. The US Postal Service has been testing 40 of them up and down the hills of San
Francisco. The army is trying them out in places like huge supply hangars. The police are testing them
out for neighbourhood patrols. At Comdex the entire shipment they brought with them was sold in hours. If
you'd like one, you can get one at Amazon.com - if you're lucky enough to win the prize of being put on the
waiting list.
Live In Your Dentist Chair
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And the dentist chair? Well this is a device called the Peacemaker. It's a lean-back chair that does look
like it belongs in your friendly dental surgery, except for the range of colours. So you lean back, put
your feet up; swing one or both of two of its arms round to head height, they carry your flat-panel monitors.
Another arm at waist height holds the keyboard and mouse pad. All you have to do in the morning from now on is climb into the Peacemaker, adjust it to your most comfortable height and angle of recline, then compute to your heart's content till bedtime. You wonder who might want one at $8,000 each? Well in the first hour of Comdex the stand had sold all 20 of the machines they had brought with them.
Ah well, innovation is not dead. Gates says 90% of new computing technology is yet to come. Well after
Comdex 2002 you'd better make that number 89%.
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Reprinted from the February 2003 issue of PC Update, the magazine of Melbourne PC User Group, Australia
